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WikiLeaks: 2006-03-05: 06MOSUL26: Ninewa: A Provincial Councilmember's Views on Leadership Changes after the Provincial Elections

by WikiLeaks. 06MOSUL26: March 05, 2006.

Posted: Sunday, February 05, 2012 at 11:55 AM UTC


Viewing cable 06MOSUL26, NINEWA: A PROVINCIAL COUNCILMEMBER'S VIEWS ON LEADERSHIP

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MOSUL26 2006-03-05 08:35 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL REO
Mosul
VZCZCXRO8102
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHMOS #0026/01 0640835
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 050835Z MAR 06
FM REO MOSUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0431
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0029
RUEHMOS/REO MOSUL 0449
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000026 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/5/2016 
TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR
SUBJECT: NINEWA: A PROVINCIAL COUNCILMEMBER'S VIEWS ON
LEADERSHIP CHANGES AFTER THE PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS 
 
MOSUL 00000026  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron  Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial 
Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) Ninewa Provincial Council and Assyrian Democratic 
Movement (ADM) member, Gevara Zia, said he believed Sunni Arab 
political parties would control the Ninewa provincial government 
after elections were held later this year.  Zia claimed a "more 
representative" provincial government would better serve the 
public and improve security.  He claimed the current 
Kurdish-dominated provincial council was more concerned about 
political posturing than providing basic services, such as 
electricity and clean water, and as a result had become 
estranged from the public.  Zia said the building of political 
party coalitions for the elections, as well as the outcome of 
future Kurdish symbolic influence in Ninewa, would largely 
depend on how alignments were formed in the new national 
assembly in Baghdad.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) PRT Poloff met with Gevara Zia, Ninewa Provincial 
Council and Assyrian Democratic Movement (ADM) member, in Mosul 
on March 4. 
 
---------------------------------- 
PROVINCIAL ELECTION (RE)ALIGNMENTS 
---------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Zia claimed Sunnis would control the majority of seats 
in the provincial council, including the governorship and vice 
governorship, after elections were held later this year.  He 
said the Kurdish coalition was trying to gather support from 
smaller minority political parties to counter Sunni domination, 
but that their success would be marginal.  He said many smaller 
parties were afraid to align with the Kurds for fear that Sunnis 
would win by large margins and "punish" them.  Zia claimed there 
was currently a split between the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) and 
the Iraqi National Dialogue Council (INDC) on several issues. 
However, he said the two groups were still working on a broader 
coalition with the Turkmen Front, the Iraqi Communist Party, and 
members of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's coalition, the 
National Iraqi List.  Zia said he expected the Shabek Democratic 
Assembly to build a coalition with Shia political parties of the 
United Iraqi Coalition, since it was unlikely Shias would align 
with either Sunnis or the Kurds.  Zia said ADM was uncertain how 
to proceed for the elections: whether they would stay 
independent, side with other minority parties, or join a larger 
coalition.  He said it would depend on the political atmosphere 
leading up to the election. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
SUNNI PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT WOULD BETTER SERVE THE PUBLIC 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
4.  (C) When asked whether he thought a predominantly Sunni Arab 
provincial council would function more successfully than the 
current Kurdish one, Zia replied with a resounding "yes."  He 
said many people in Ninewa did not believe the current 
provincial government was "legal" or represented them.  He 
claimed that what contributed to this problem was that the 
provincial government operated as a "separate entity" from the 
public and therefore did not bother to build the trust of the 
people.  Zia said excuses by Governor Duraid Kashmoula and Vice 
Governor Khassro Goran that the highly centralized federal 
government did not allow them to do their job were false.  Zia 
accused the two, and the majority Kurdish provincial council, of 
concentrating more on "political gains" rather than with helping 
the people.  He said, for example, that during the CPA days the 
provincial government was given funding but had not, to this 
day, produced results.  Zia said he believed the Sunnis would 
simply do a better job with governance and administrative issues 
than the Kurds.  He claimed that a "more representative" 
Sunni-led government would concentrate more on providing basic 
public services, such as clean water and electricity. 
 
---------------------------- 
AN END TO KURDISH INFLUENCE? 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Zia said expectations that a new Sunni Arab provincial 
government might be able to limit Kurdish influence -- such as 
flags and Peshmerga -- in Ninewa would largely depend on how the 
new federal government was formed.  He said events in Baghdad 
 
MOSUL 00000026  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
would directly affect power-sharing arrangements in Ninewa, 
which might also influence Kurdish symbolic presence in the 
province. 
 
-------- 
SECURITY 
-------- 
 
6.  (C) Zia said he expected security to improve as well with a 
Sunni Arab-dominated provincial government.  He said the two 
groups of Sunnis -- political leadership and terrorists -- would 
square off, with the political side eventually succeeding in 
pacifying the terrorist elements.  Zia claimed, however, that 
the process would take time and therefore security problems 
would not disappear overnight.  He claimed that the more diverse 
the provincial government, the better security would be in the 
province. 
 
-------------------------- 
TIMELINE AND POWER BROKERS 
-------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Zia said he did not expect provincial elections to take 
place until later this year.  He said the new national 
government would have to rewrite all of the laws pertaining to 
the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI), as well as 
change leadership within that organization before any elections 
could take place.  Zia said the Al-Najafi family, led by the 
Minister of Industry and Minerals Abdulaziz Al-Najafi, would 
likely be the next power family in Ninewa.  He said the 
Al-Najafis fought hard to gain power in 2004 after the 
assassination of former governor Osama Kashmoula (current 
governor Duraid Kashmoula's cousin), but that they eventually 
lost to the Kashmoula family.  He said that the Al-Najafi 
family's desire to sit at the seat of power had not diminished. 
However, Zia said that he did not have specific names of which 
Al-Najafi family members would run for office. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C) Gevara Zia has been a reliable contact for the PRT in 
the past, and his views on the ground in Ninewa should not be 
taken lightly.  He has served on the provincial council since 
January 2005, and has been known as one of the few members who 
consistently stand up to the council's Kurdish leadership. 
While his comments should not be taken as gospel, his insight 
into provincial politics tracks with other voices we have heard, 
especially outside Mosul: that the current leadership is 
detached, and will pay for its detachment at the polls. 
MUNTER

 


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