Armenian, Assyrian and Hellenic Genocide News

Turkey concerned Bush might drop Baku-Ceyhan pipeline plan
by Mideast Mirror - 12/20/2000
Posted: Saturday, December 23, 2000 10:21 am CST

But the incoming U.S. administration is sure to uphold Washington's "strategic partnership" with Ankara, Mohammad Noureddin writes in al-Mustaqbal George W. Bush's administration will maintain the United States' "strategic partnership" with Turkey, but there is concern in Ankara that it will not be as enthusiastic as the outgoing Clinton administration about plans to transport Caspian Sea oil and gas to international markets via Turkey, according to Turkish affairs expert Mohammad Noureddin.

Writing in the Beirut daily al-Mustaqbal, he notes that both Bush and Vice President-elect Dick Cheney have links with American oil firms which believe that transporting the oil via Iran would be more economically viable than building a proposed Baku-Ceyhan pipeline at a cost of some $4 billion. BUSH SR & CLINTON: When the U.S. president-elect's name is mentioned, Turks immediately think of George Bush Sr, who was president from 1988 to 1992, Noureddin writes.

For this was a "historic" period in terms of matters involving Turkey, not least the 1991 Gulf war and the situation that emerged in northern Iraq, heightening Ankara's Kurdish-related apprehensions.

And when George Bush the father is mentioned, the other side of the American-Turkish coin of that time comes to Turkish minds, and that is the late president Turgut Ozal. The Turkish president had forged such a close relationship with his American counterpart that a hot line was set up between the White House and the presidential palace in Ankara for the first time and Bush became the first U.S. president in more than 30 years to visit Ankara.

The Ozal-Bush era was one of full agreement between Ankara and Washington, and the two men were constantly in touch. Ozal -- unlike other Turkish leaders -- supported the use of force against Iraq, and this encouraged Bush to go ahead with Operation Desert Storm. Ozal's enthusiasm for the U.S.-led war against Iraq may have stemmed from his designs on the country, specifically its northern part. That Ozal aspired to annex northern Iraq to Turkey was confirmed in the memoirs of people who worked with him, such as the prime minister, defense minister and chief of General Staff at the time.

When Bill Clinton succeeded Bush in 1992, Turkish-U.S. relations improved even further and were upgraded to a "strategic partnership," Noureddin continues.

Clinton attached great importance to Turkey and its role in confronting Russia and Iran. He strove to promote a global economic role for Turkey through the proposed pipeline that would carry Caspian Sea oil from Baku in Azerbaijan to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan via Georgia, thus bypassing Russia and Iran. It was also thanks to pressure from the Clinton administration that the European Union (EU) agreed to accept Turkey as a candidate for membership at its December 1999 Helsinki summit.

GEORGE W.: After the eight-year "golden" Clinton era and the defeat of his "heir" Al Gore by Republican George W. Bush, the question is being asked whether Turkish-American relations will remain as good under the incoming U.S. administration.

Officials at the Turkish foreign ministry and other quarters dealing with foreign policy believe there is no simple answer to this question, says Noureddin. However, the general impression is that the "strategic partnership" between the two countries will continue, although differences may arise on some foreign policy issues.

These circles believe there are differences between the Democrats' perception of Turkey and that of the Republicans, which is not to say that the latter attach less importance to Turkey. While George W. Bush's inexperience in international affairs may give an impression of ambiguity where future relations are concerned, the cabinet Bush is currently putting together should make up for that.

Vice President-elect Cheney was defense secretary during the Gulf war and visited Turkey several times. Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time, and Ankara is therefore no stranger to him. The same is true of Condoleezza Rice, who has been named national security adviser and who knows Turkey well. Paul Wolfowitz, who is tipped to become defense secretary, held a senior post at the Pentagon during the Gulf war. And Richard Armitage, another possible appointee as defense secretary, also served under Cheney when he held that post.

Hence, most members of Bush's team are "friends" of Turkey and familiar with Turkish affairs.

This is not to say that there will be no problems at all, Noureddin writes.

The incoming administration is expected to continue to avoid colliding with Turkey on the Cyprus issue or exerting pressures that could embarrass Ankara. And it is likely to attach great importance to the issue of Ankara's position in the EU's new defense "identity," which makes no room for Turkey while enabling the EU to make use of NATO's resources -- something Turkey refuses by virtue of its NATO membership and EU candidacy. Hence, the new U.S. administration will have to step in and apply pressure so that Turkey will know where it stands in the European-NATO relationship.

One cause of concern for Turkey is Bush's stand on the Balkans, chiefly Kosovo. During his election campaign, Bush said he would pull U.S. forces out of Kosovo and the Balkans, and he had earlier criticized NATO's air campaign against Yugoslavia. Ankara fears the withdrawal of U.S. troops would undermine its influence in the Balkans.

Iraq is a key issue for Turkey given that Bush is expected to take a tougher line in a bid to topple President Saddam Hussein. While Ozal was prepared to take part in the war against Iraq and even considered seizing its northern part, matters are different now. Ankara is forging close links with Baghdad and fears that chaos could result from a fresh large-scale military offensive against Iraq. The Turks expect the new U.S. president to take Turkey's interests, and the sensitivity of its position, into account when planning policy vis--vis Iraq.

[The Turkish parliament has just extended for a further six months the mandate of U.S. and British aircraft that patrol a no-fly zone over northern Iraq. The warplanes fly out of the southern Turkish airbase at Incirlik in so-called Operation Northern Watch, which Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu said was in the interests of Turkey.]

PIPELINE: But the issue that most worries Turks is the future of plans to build a Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, Noureddin writes.

The Clinton administration has been a staunch advocate of the project, and the leaders of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have signed agreements under U.S.-British auspices related to the proposed construction of the pipeline. The plan's main objective is twofold: to reduce Russia's influence in the Caucasus, and to undermine Iran's economic role.

But although the plan is several years old and related agreements have been concluded, it remains ink on paper. The projected pipeline would cost 3-to-4 billion dollars and U.S. and British oil firms think it would not be economically viable. They prefer to transport Caspian oil and gas to world markets via Iran, where it would not cost more than $1 billion to complete existing pipelines and other infrastructure.

[The Clinton administration has backed both the proposed BakuCeyhan oil pipeline and a gas route running across the Caspian seabed from Turkmenistan to Turkey via Azerbaijan.]

The Bush-Cheney administration is likely to take a different view of the Baku-Ceyhan project and consider going for the Iranian route. The two men have direct links with American oil firms, which helped finance their campaign, and would therefore be expected to promote their interests. However, Turkish circles point out that directing the flow of energy from the Caspian via Iran would necessitate the normalization of, or at least an improvement in, relations between Washington and Tehran. Since this can't be done easily or quickly, the Baku-Ceyhan plan still has a chance, they argue.

In short, differences on this or that issue notwithstanding, Turkey is expected to remain the United States' second major ally in the Middle East after Israel during the term of the Bush administration, says Noureddin. Suffice it to remember that the close relationship has outlived successive administrations in Washington and a variety of governments, not to mention military coups, in Ankara.

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