Armenian, Assyrian and Hellenic Genocide News

No 'Deterioration' Expected in U.S.-Turkish Relations
by Istanbul Milliyet - 19 Dec 2000
Posted: Friday, January 05, 2001 10:14 am CST

Subslug: Column by Hasan Cemal: "Whither Turkish-American Relations?"

[FBIS Translated Text] In the last ten years Turkish-American relations have on the best course they have been in their history. This new phase began with Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the ensuing Gulf War. At that time the occupant of the White House was George Bush, a Republican.

There was no change in relations under President Clinton after the White House passed to the Democrats. Relations between the two countries improved. Perhaps one can even say that Clinton appreciated Turkey best among all American presidents. According to some observers he was the President who started a honeymoon in relations.

Partnership and cooperation began to put their stamp on relations. The phrase "strategic partnership" became part of the agenda.

Ankara tended to march together with Washington on the same wavelength and using the same language. Ankara came to believe that this would allow the sides to understand each other better and impress the United States even more.

It was not an unreasonable approach.

Indeed American support played a determining role in several instances: the Customs Union with the EU, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, the military operations in northern Iraq, financial crises including the most recent one, Turkey's inclusion in the G-20, and Turkey's identification as one of the world's emerging economies.

In return Turkey stood by the side of the United States in the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. The United States depended on Turkey as much as Turkey depended on it. In other words Turkey retained an important place in the U.S. "global strategy" after the Cold War also.

What can happen from this point on?

After a hiatus of eight years the White House is reverting to the Republicans. Will President George W. Bush make any changes in the positive course that his father and President Clinton developed for Turkey?

At first glance, no.

It can be said that the Republican approach to Turkey is more strategic compared to the stance of the Democrats, that "realpolitik" is more dominant in their approach, and that for this reason they will put stronger emphasis on bilateral military relations.

For example, the Republicans' Russia policy is different from that of the Democrats. They see Russia as a rival power that must be checked. That means that Turkey's weight may increase in U.S. policies with respect to the Caucasus and Central Asia during the Bush administration.

In addition Bush's Vice President, Dick Cheney, like prospective Secretary of State Colin Powell, are well aware of Turkey's strategic importance. Bush's decision to appoint this team which is a legacy of his father's era has been welcome in Ankara.

That does not mean that there are no question marks. During my stay in Washington in mid-November I noticed that reference was made to two issues that concern Turkish-American relations: the Iraq issue and the Armenian question.

It appears that George W. Bush wants to finish off the work his father could not complete in 1991 and overthrow Saddam Husayn. The first statement by Colin Powell, who was the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during his father's administration, was in this direction.

Ankara has a different view. It has long expressed its intention to normalize relations with Saddam.

What will happen?

Another problem is the Armenian genocide resolution.

Last month Dennis Hastert, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, announced that he will put the Armenian resolution on the agenda of the House in February.

What will the new President do?

President Clinton could write a letter to the House at the last minute to block the passage of the Armenian resolution because he did not have any concerns about getting re-elected.

Fixed Menu

However George W. Bush does not have such a strong hand vis a vis Congress. Congress is badly divided. For that reason a President that needs every vote may not act like Clinton.

That means that these two issues, Iraq and the Armenian resolution, may poison Turkish-American relations in 2001 if the necessary care is not taken.

These relations have turned around a fixed menu that has not changed for many years: Cyprus, the Aegean, human rights, the Southeast, the Kurdish question, and so forth. Although more understanding than the EU on these issues, the United States may sometimes make certain demands on Turkey.

Despite all these, however, if the necessary attention is paid, Turkish-American relations are unlikely to deteriorate during George W. Bush's administration.

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