Armenian, Assyrian and Hellenic Genocide News

Putin's Visit to Azerbaijan Could Benefit Armenia
by California Courier, January 18, 2001
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2001 03:56 am CST

Commentary

By Harut Sassounian
California Courier Publisher

Russian President Vladimir Putin's first-ever visit to Azerbaijan earlier this month may have far-reaching political, economic and military implications not only for the two countries, but also for Armenia, Georgia, Iran, Turkey, Europe and even the United States.

In contrast to the chaotic and lethargic leadership of his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, Putin is a young and dynamic leader who is aggressively trying to re-assert Russia's dominant role over the former Soviet Republics.

Azerbaijan has distanced itself from Russia's orbit of influence and gravitated towards Turkey and the West, ever the since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Neighboring Georgia followed a similar political path. Both Azerbaijan (earlier) and Georgia (more recently) prohibited the stationing of Russian military units on their territories. These two countries even made public their eagerness--no matter how unrealistic, to join NATO.

Armenia, on the other hand, maintained close relations with Moscow without sacrificing its ties to the West. Later this month, along with Azerbaijan, Armenia is joining the Council of Europe. Georgia became a member some time ago. Furthermore, all three Caucasian Republics have joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program.

Nevertheless, Armenia is the only Caucasian Republic to have allowed Russian military bases on its territory, prompted by threats to its security from neighboring Turkey. Some quarters in the West, goaded by Turkish and Azeri lobbyists, have mischaracterized this relationship, by portraying Armenia as a client state of Russia.

Under these circumstances, Putin's decision to visit Azerbaijan first, rather than Armenia, has raised a lot of eyebrows in Armenia and elsewhere. Armenian officials quietly, but unsuccessfully, tried to convince the Russian President to come to Armenia first. The Russian President, however, did not even agree to visit Armenia immediately after going to Azerbaijan. In my view, Putin made the right decision. His visit to Baku was an absolute necessity given the interests of both Russia and Azerbaijan. Furthermore, contrary to many Armenian pundits, that visit may not be harmful to Armenia's interests. In fact, it may prove quite beneficial. The Russian leaders could no longer stand by and watch as Turkey and the Western countries encroached on what has been historically their sphere of influence. Putin is trying to reassert his country's influence in the Transcaucasus. As the major power in the region, Moscow wants a larger share of the Caspian energy resources. It also wants to control the flow of Azeri oil by ensuring the passage of the pipelines through Russia. During his visit, Putin succeeded in signing several major political, economic and military agreements with Azerbaijan.

Of course, Pres. Heidar Aliev has his own reasons for seeking an improved relationship with Russia. He is disappointed that Azerbaijan has not gained significantly from its long years of flirting with the West. Given his advanced age and failing health, he can ill-afford to wait much longer for a Western-brokered settlement of the Karabagh conflict. He realizes that if Azerbaijan were to continue isolating and antagonizing Russia, eventually Moscow could destabilize his regime, create great mischief in the Karabagh conflict and hinder the flow of Azeri oil to the world outside.

In my opinion, Armenia stands to gain from such a Russian-Azeri rapprochement. So far, Armenia has been in the precarious state of relying solely on Russia to fend off any potential threats from Turkey and Azerbaijan. The warming of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan would occur at the expense of the latter's close ties with Turkey and the West. This would mean that Armenia would no longer face an Azerbaijan that has the solid backing of Turkey. This in turn could lead to the lessening of hostilities between Armenia and Turkey.

Another positive outcome of the Russian-Azeri rapprochement could be that Armenia would no longer be viewed by the West as the only country in the Caucasus that enjoys a close relationship with Russia. Armenia could also improve its image in the West by pointing out that it has several disagreements with Russia. For example, Russia is refusing to reschedule Armenia's debt, demanding immediate payment of more than $100 million. Last December, Russia voted for a United Nations' resolution affirming that Karabagh is a part of Azerbaijan. While in Baku, Putin stressed that he favors a solution for the Karabagh conflict that would not entail a loser and a winner. Since Armenia is the current winner, Putin's approach could result in another contentious issue between the countries.

In summary, the apparent winners from Pres. Putin's visit to Azerbaijan are Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The possible losers are Turkey and the Western countries, including the United States. Georgia and Iran could also lose, although to a lesser degree. Georgia could become isolated as the only Transcaucasian Republic that is aligned with the West and unfriendly towards Russia. Iran could lose Russia's backing in its conflict with Azerbaijan over the Caspian Sea boundary dispute.

Related Information...

Armenian, Assyrian and Hellenic Genocide News Archives